The global FX macro summary indicates a strong US dollar with a dollar dominance percentage of 66.67. Polymarket odds suggest a high probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a probability of 85.95%, and a moderate probability of a Fed rate hike, at 54.5%. The prediction-market odds reconcile with the strong dollar thematic alignment, suggesting that the primary driver of FX moves is still the rate differential, but may start to shift towards broader macro factors such as oil prices and 10-year yields. The dominant cross-asset driver is currently the rate differential, but there is a potential shift towards broader macro drivers. One key risk to monitor is the possibility of a broader macro move, rather than a narrow rates-driven move, as the market is pricing in a low probability of interest rate cuts. The strong dollar and market expectations of a stable Fed funds rate are driving the current FX impulse, with the USDINR and USDJPY pairs experiencing moderate moves driven by volatility dynamics and open interest flow, respectively.